Beyond the Frontline: Disinformation and Diplomacy in the Thai-Cambodian Standoff

The recent week of intense border skirmishes between Thailand and Cambodia has cast a long shadow over what is often a complex, yet interdependent, relationship. Understanding the historical ebb and flow of their interactions, particularly concerning the long-disputed border, is crucial to grasping the gravity of the present situation.

Beyond the immediate clashes, the ongoing tensions between Thailand and Cambodia are shaped by a multitude of intersecting perspectives and underlying issues. These include the long-standing vagueness of the border demarcation, the perceived shifts in the political influence of figures like Hun Sen, the potential for hidden agendas among leaders, and the contentious issue of "scambodian" activities. Each of these elements contributes to the intricate and often volatile nature of their bilateral ties.

Historical Roots of the Border Dispute

The roots of the Thai-Cambodian border dispute stretch back to the early 20th century, specifically the Franco-Siamese treaties of 1904 and 1907. These agreements, defining the boundary between Siam (as Thailand was then known) and French Indochina (which included Cambodia), left sections ill-defined, relying on vague watershed lines that later proved problematic. This ambiguity laid the groundwork for future tensions, especially around ancient Khmer temples that dot the frontier.

The most famous of these is the 11th-century Preah Vihear temple. In 1962, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that the temple itself belonged to Cambodia, a decision based on a French-drawn map from 1907. However, Thailand has consistently contested the validity of this map and the ruling, claiming the 4.6 square kilometers surrounding the temple remain disputed. This historical grievance resurfaced dramatically in 2008 when Cambodia successfully listed Preah Vihear as a UNESCO World Heritage Site, igniting nationalist protests in Thailand and leading to a series of deadly clashes between 2008 and 2011. The ICJ, in 2013, reaffirmed its earlier ruling, stating that the surrounding land was also Cambodian, a decision that continues to sting in Bangkok.

Contested Maps and Maritime Ambition

A key point of contention in this dispute is Cambodia's insistence on using the 1:200,000 scale map, created during French colonial rule, to define the border with Thailand. This map, while forming the basis of Cambodia's claims, is viewed by Thailand as a product of a historical period of Western colonial pressure on Siam, where treaties were often signed under duress and resulted in territorial concessions that were not always equitable. The actual demarcation of the border by French surveyors often produced maps that deviated from the agreed-upon watershed lines. This is in stark contrast to Cambodia's approach with Laos and Vietnam, where it has successfully demarcated over 80% of its borders using more modern 1:50,000 scale maps, leading critics to question Cambodia's consistency and motives in border negotiations with Thailand.

Beyond the immediate land disputes, a significant underlying issue contributing to the current tensions is Cambodia's perceived ambition to expand its maritime territory in the Gulf of Thailand. This is linked to the Overlapping Claims Area (OCA), a resource-rich zone in the Gulf believed to hold substantial oil and gas reserves, estimated to be worth at least $300 billion (approximately 10 trillion baht). Both Thailand and Cambodia have made unilateral claims to parts of this continental shelf, leading to a long-standing stalemate in resource development. Reports indicate that companies like Total Energies and ConocoPhillips have previously secured exploration concessions from Cambodia in these disputed waters. However, due to the unresolved territorial claims and the lack of a clear boundary, actual drilling and exploitation have been largely stalled. Critics in Thailand argue that Cambodia's efforts to establish a new, more favorable land border demarcation are intrinsically linked to its desire to create a continuous and undisputed claim over a larger portion of the OCA. This would allow Cambodia to legitimize its existing concessions and potentially grant new ones, thereby gaining significant economic benefits from the vast energy resources. This perceived attempt to alter the land border to secure lucrative maritime resources is a major point of contention and a key factor in the escalating tensions.

Cambodia's drive for more maritime territory is primarily rooted in its economic development goals and energy security. As a country with limited access to the high seas, being "zone-locked" by its neighbors' Exclusive Economic Zones, Cambodia views expanded maritime boundaries and control over its EEZ as crucial for harnessing valuable resources like fisheries and offshore petroleum. The potential for discovering significant oil and gas deposits, particularly in the OCA, is seen as a vital boost to its economy, which currently relies heavily on external fuel supplies. While Cambodia achieved its "first drop of oil" from Block A in 2020, subsequent financial struggles of the operating company and incidents like the "smuggling" of crude oil have highlighted the challenges in developing its domestic oil industry. Therefore, securing undisputed access to the OCA's estimated 10 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 300 million barrels of crude oil is a strategic imperative for Cambodia to enhance its energy independence and generate substantial national revenue.

Hun Sen's Enduring Rule and Economic Strategies

One significant perspective on the escalation of the situation involves the political motivations of Cambodia's long-standing leader, Hun Sen. Originally associated with the Khmer Rouge, he played a role in their rise before defecting to Vietnam to seek support in overthrowing the regime. He subsequently assumed leadership in Cambodia, a position he has held for 38 years. His rule has drawn considerable criticism, particularly concerning his decision to allow former Khmer Rouge members, who were implicated in the deaths of a quarter of Cambodia's population, to hold positions in parliament. Furthermore, he has been accused of sidelining the Cambodian monarchy and maintaining absolute power, while Cambodia remains economically underdeveloped, struggling with education, healthcare, and infrastructure. In stark contrast, his family has reportedly amassed significant wealth, making them among the richest in the country.

In an effort to generate revenue and perhaps offset developmental shortcomings, Hun Sen's government has heavily relied on the casino industry. As of early 2024, Cambodia had 87 licensed casinos, many concentrated in border towns like Bavet and Poipet, primarily catering to foreign visitors, particularly from Thailand. In 2024, Cambodia earned $63.1 million in tax revenue from casinos and games of chance, an 85% increase from the previous year. However, this economic strategy has also brought Cambodia under international scrutiny. The country has faced accusations of being a hub for illicit financial activities, including money laundering. While Cambodia has taken steps to address these concerns and improve its compliance with anti-money laundering standards (as noted by organizations like the Financial Action Task Force - FATF), its financial trust ratings, such as Moody's revising Cambodia's outlook to negative in April 2025, indicate persistent concerns about trade risks and financial vulnerabilities.

The "Scambodia" Phenomenon and its Impact

This environment has also given rise to the widespread use of the term "scambodia," referring to Cambodia's growing reputation as a center for online scam operations. In May 2025, independent human rights experts and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) warned that scam centers, often linked to organized crime, were operating on a vast scale across Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, the Philippines, and Malaysia. As independent human rights experts stated, "Southeast Asian nations should do more to protect people from being reeled into scam farms. It’s believed that hundreds of thousands of trafficked individuals of various nationalities are forced to carry out fraud in the centres located across Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, the Philippines and Malaysia. The underground operations are often linked to criminal networks that recruit victims globally, putting them to work in facilities principally in Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, the Philippines and Malaysia." The UNODC specifically identified multiple scam hubs along the Thai-Cambodian border, noting significant foreign investment in these areas, which serve as operational bases for syndicates targeting victims globally. Thailand has been significantly affected by these activities, with reports of its citizens being kidnapped, forced into labor, and subjected to torture within these scam compounds. This has also led to a significant decrease in Chinese tourists visiting Thailand, fueled by rumors and fears of kidnapping and forced labor in these scam operations.

Internal Pressures and Political Motivations

Hun Sen's perceived failure to advance Cambodia's development and his efforts to suppress opposition has led to a decline in his popularity among a more informed Cambodian populace. This decline is exacerbated by the suppression of political dissent, with prominent opposition figures like Sam Rainsy, former leader of the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), forced to live in exile in France since 2015 due to politically motivated charges. The CNRP itself was dissolved in 2017, effectively eliminating the main opposition. Furthermore, Cambodia has faced persistent humanitarian concerns regarding the unknown disappearance of individuals who are critical of the government. Human rights organizations and UN bodies have reported on these enforced disappearances, with notable cases such as the Thai activist Wanchalearm Satsaksit, who was abducted in Phnom Penh in 2020 and whose fate remains unknown.

As Hun Sen ages and seeks to pass his legacy to his son, Hun Manet, there is a perceived need to regain public respect. This situation suggests a potential motivation to create a "hero" narrative for Hun Manet and to distract the Cambodian people from internal issues by redirecting their focus towards an external "enemy," thereby consolidating the Hun family's absolute power. In this context, Thailand, with its historical border disputes and recent actions against Cambodian-based illicit activities, presents itself as a convenient and potent external "enemy" to rally nationalistic sentiment. However, the Hun family's leadership is being heavily questioned, as only a small fraction of people believe the propaganda plan. In an era where the internet makes it impossible to hide anything, it has become impossible to conceal the significant losses suffered by Cambodian soldiers, with hundreds and thousands of relatives reportedly searching for them. The plan to seize disputed territories largely failed, with Thai soldiers capturing most of them. A leader who sends soldiers with outdated weapons to their deaths, a leader who tries to suppress the Cambodian people from rising up in opposition, a leader who refuses to accept the bodies of his own soldiers back home and denies they are his, even though Thai soldiers respectfully cared for and returned the bodies – such a leader is unworthy of the Cambodian people. However, this problem is one that the Cambodian people must rise up and solve themselves.

Thailand's Counter-Measures and the Breakdown of Elite Relations

In response to the growing issue of scam centers, which heavily impact its own citizens and tourism, Thailand has announced a concerted effort to combat these operations. This includes measures to cut off internet access and electricity feeding into suspected scam centers along the Cambodia-Thailand border, a strategy that began in early 2025 and intensified in June. Simultaneously, the Thai government has been advancing plans to develop large-scale entertainment complexes, which include legal casinos, aiming to boost its own tourism and economy.

These actions by Thailand are believed by some to have significantly upset Hun Sen. Speculation suggests that Hun Sen may have retaliated by attempting to "blackmail" the Thai Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, by leaking information about past mutual benefits and "grey business" connections between the Hun family and the Shinawatra family. This alleged move is seen by some as another key perspective on why the tension between the two countries has escalated significantly, as it touches upon both economic interests and sensitive political relationships. This was exemplified by a leaked phone call in June 2025 between then-Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Hun Sen, in which Paetongtarn reportedly referred to Hun Sen as "uncle" and made critical remarks about a senior Thai military commander, also allegedly offering to "take care of it" if Hun Sen had any requests. This leak caused significant political turmoil in Thailand, leading to Paetongtarn's suspension from office by the Constitutional Court. Following this, Hun Sen publicly threatened to expose "damaging secrets" about the Thaksin Shinawatra family, including alleged insults to the Thai monarchy, if provoked further. He accused Thaksin of "betrayal" and claimed the Shinawatra family owed him a debt of gratitude, suggesting that the breakdown in their long-standing "god-brother" relationship was a direct consequence of Thailand's crackdown on scam operations, which reportedly affected the Hun family's interests.

A Fragile Coexistence and Enduring Thai Support

Despite these historical flashpoints and recent escalations, the relationship between Thailand and Cambodia has largely been characterized by a degree of economic interdependence and informal cooperation. Hundreds of thousands of Cambodian migrant workers are employed in Thailand, sending vital remittances back home. Cross-border trade, particularly at bustling checkpoints like Aranyaprathet-Poipet, has been a significant aspect of their economic ties.

Furthermore, Thailand has historically provided significant support to Cambodia in critical sectors like education and healthcare, acknowledging Cambodia's ongoing development challenges in these areas. Thailand offers numerous scholarships for Cambodian nationals to pursue higher education (Master's and Doctoral degrees) at Thai universities, often covering tuition, living allowances, travel, and health insurance. Beyond higher education, Cambodian children have also been allowed to cross the border to attend schools in Thailand. In healthcare, Cambodians have frequently crossed the border to seek medical treatment in Thailand, with Thai border hospitals often providing care, including for emergency cases, adhering to humanitarian principles. This informal yet vital support underscores a deeper level of interconnectedness that exists despite political and territorial disputes.

However, this cross-border healthcare provision also presents a significant financial burden for Thailand. In 2024 alone, Thai hospitals shouldered over 277 million baht in uncollected medical costs from Cambodian border patients. This substantial amount highlights a complex aspect of their relationship, where humanitarian aid and practical support come with considerable financial implications for the host nation.

The Immediate Escalation: The Week of Fire

Even before the current week-long conflict, signs of increased fragility were evident in 2025. A clash in May resulted in the death of a Cambodian soldier. Incidents like Cambodian civilians and troops singing their national anthem at the disputed Ta Moan Thom temple in February, prompting intervention from Thai soldiers, highlighted the ever-present potential for escalation. Domestic politics in both countries also played a role, with Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's controversial leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen further inflaming nationalist sentiment in Thailand.

The current week-long conflict, which intensified dramatically on July 24, 2025, has marked the sharpest escalation in years. Reports of drone incursions, rocket strikes, and fighter jet deployments indicate a dangerous shift in the nature of the confrontation. Both sides accuse each other of initiating hostilities and violating territorial integrity.

However, satellite data analysis by Nathan Ruser, a conflict-zone analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), indicates that Cambodia initiated the majority of escalatory actions, including reinforcing positions and deploying strategic assets prior to the major July 24 clash. This analysis identified 33 Cambodian escalatory events versus 14 Thai actions, with systematic military preparations by Cambodia observed months before the clashes. The human cost has been severe, with dozens of deaths, predominantly civilians, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people from border areas. Cambodian forces also reportedly launched indiscriminate attacks on Thai civilian targets across four provinces (Buriram, Surin, Si Sa Ket, and Ubon Ratchathani), including a petrol station convenience store in Si Sa Ket where many Thai citizens, including students, lost their lives, and multiple hospitals (19 affected, 9 closed). In contrast, Thai military responses were primarily directed at Cambodian military bases and targets, with Thailand asserting its actions were proportionate and in self-defense.

Information Warfare and Disinformation Campaigns

Adding to the complexity, the Cambodian government, through its officials and social media channels, has reportedly disseminated false information during the conflict. In an attempt to create fake news, Cambodia has redirected the power of scammers to conduct information operations (IO), spreading deceptive and inflammatory news against Thailand.

This includes circulating a photo of a US aircraft dropping pink fire retardant during a Californian wildfire, falsely claiming it showed a Thai plane using chemical weapons against Cambodia. Other instances of misinformation include fabricated videos of Thai air raids and false claims of Thai soldiers being killed or captured. While the Cambodian government's spokespersons have been highly active in reporting to the world almost hourly, the Thai government has been criticized for its slower and less coordinated response to these false claims and fake news, leading to perceptions that its communication efforts have not been as effective. Thailand has vehemently denied these accusations, labeling them as "baseless" and "fake news," and reaffirming its adherence to the Chemical Weapons Convention, emphasizing that such disinformation campaigns undermine peace-building efforts.

Immediate Impact and Geopolitical Undertones

The immediate impact has been a significant deterioration of diplomatic ties, with both countries recalling ambassadors and expelling envoys. Economically, the conflict has been devastating. Border crossings have been shut or had operating hours drastically reduced, crippling cross-border trade. Cambodia has imposed bans on Thai fruit, vegetables, and fuel imports, while Thailand has reportedly restricted Cambodian motorcycle entry. Economists warn of a potential 181.7 billion baht economic loss for both nations if the conflict prolongs. The vulnerability of Cambodian migrant workers in Thailand has also become a major concern.

Beyond the immediate damage, the conflict has shattered the personal bonds that previously helped stabilize relations at the leadership level, most notably the long-standing "god-brother" relationship between Hun Sen and the Shinawatra family. This breakdown of trust at the highest echelons makes future informal negotiations significantly more challenging. There are also increasing geopolitical undertones, with the conflict being viewed by some through the lens of US-trained versus China-trained armies, adding another layer of complexity.

Moving Forward: A Precarious Path

As a fragile ceasefire attempts to hold, the future of Thai-Cambodian relations remains precarious. While both nations have expressed a desire for peaceful resolution, deeply ingrained historical grievances, coupled with heightened nationalist sentiments on both sides, make significant compromises politically difficult. The call for a proper border survey and the willingness to abide by international legal rulings are seen as crucial steps towards a lasting peace, but these are long-term solutions that require genuine commitment and a move beyond immediate blame.

The past week has served as a stark reminder that despite periods of relative calm, the unresolved border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia remains a volatile flashpoint. The path to a truly peaceful and prosperous coexistence will require sustained diplomatic effort, a willingness to address historical wounds, and a commitment to mutually acceptable solutions for their shared, yet contested, frontier.

---